My Predictions as a Real Estate professional

Disclaimer: I am not an economist, I am not a statistician, I am a Real Estate Agent with my own opinion that you can listen to or not listen to. My statement does not reflect Century 21 or the Real Estate Industry or CREA or OREA or TREB or MREB or FACEBOOK or YOUTUBE or any other organization that I’m a part of.

Some changes are going to happen this year that are very predictable. The HST will come into effect and that will drive people to buy houses before that tax kicks in. Similar to when Toronto got their new present of a land transfer tax. There was a mini boom and a mini bubble before that went into effect. At the same time this mini bubble will happen just before the Bank of Canada is going to announce interest rates. (or before they kick in) The announcement will be that the rates will go up sharply. I don’t know figures and I don’t know exactly by how much. Rest assured it will go up, maybe fast, maybe slow. It will depend on inflation, the dollar and how we do in the olympics. It will also depend on other factors that the economists use to determine interest rate hikes and decreases. By the end of the year and into next year they will go up. As we saw the interest rates come down it will go back. The rates will stop there. The rates will be close to where they were before the recession, (yes I said it recession), Yes the rates will be close.  They will try to bring the dollar down a bit to stimulate trade and industry. Since the US is our biggest trading partner it has to happen or we lose manufacturing jobs. We have already lost many jobs in the recession and due to our dollar being so high. So I predict that the interest rates going up and it will slow the housing market a bit, then our dollar will lower a bit, and that will raise manufacturing jobs, and inflation will go along its natural course. Now at this point if your an economist send me a formula because there is one. I just don’t remember it from my MACROECONOMIC OR MICROECONOMIC course in college. I just know there is one and I think I’m close. I’m sure there are other factors but here is the gist of it. Housing prices will go down a bit from this boom we are in, people are going to go crazy listing again because they think they are going to get a million dollars for their shack and we might be in a buyers market with higher interest rates by next year. Just as fast as it swung (is swung a word, ok I’ll add it to Wikipedia) from buyers market last year to sellers market to now it will swing in the other direction.  {on a side note I think Toyota prices will not drop at all, even if their brakes don’t work I think they think that their cars are better than Detroits cars, I’m just putting that out there}

So those are my predictions. I challenge any Real Estate Agent reading this to give me their opinion and let us know what you think. I’m sure there are agents with 50 years of experience on me that have been thru the 80’s, 90’s and 20’s? That will have great opinions and knowledge. Anyway I thought this would be a great way to stir some Real Estate Talk. Furthermore.. If you want to buy or sell a property contact me thru my website erniearrizza.com. Time is clicking. Even though prices are higher now, they are lower than later, because money is cheaper now than later. Talk to your banker he’ll explain interest rates and amortization, present value etc. Either way call me.

We are deemed to repeat the past…(some guy from the past quote)

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